FloridA State Spotlight: Scale or Die
Florida's SNF market has a clear message: Get big or get out. There is no middle ground.
The Brutal Numbers
Total Florida SNFs: 695 facilities
Top 2 operators: 106 facilities (Aston and Aspire eating everything)
Next 8 operators: 283 facilities (The "middle class" - still doing fine)
Bottom 100+ operators: 306 facilities (Fighting over scraps with 1-2 facilities each)
The Reality
The top 10 operators control 389 facilities.
That's 56% of the entire Florida market.
Everyone else is fighting for the remaining 44% - and most of them are doing it one facility at a time.
What This Means
If You're Big (10+ facilities)
You're winning. Economies of scale matter:
Bulk purchasing power - Supplies, insurance, services
Staffing flexibility - Move staff between facilities during shortages
Shared services - One IT team, one HR department, one compliance officer
Negotiating leverage - Managed care plans actually return your calls
Access to capital - Banks love multi-facility operators
If You're Small (1-2 facilities)
You're basically waiting for your buyout call.
It's not personal. It's math:
You pay more for everything (supplies, insurance, services)
You have no staffing flexibility
Every crisis is existential (one bad survey can sink you)
No one cares about your 1-facility operation
Your kids probably don't want to take over
If You're Medium (3-9 facilities)
You're in danger.
You're too big to be nimble, too small to compete. You have three options:
Grow to 10+ (expensive, risky)
Sell to someone bigger (probably smart)
Slowly bleed until you're forced to sell anyway (definitely not smart)
The Consolidation Wave
Who's Buying
Aston Gardens and Aspire are the 800-pound gorillas, but watch:
National operators expanding into Florida
Regional players from other states seeing opportunity
Private equity setting up new platforms
REITs looking for sale-leaseback opportunities
Who's Selling
Mom-and-pop operators who survived COVID and want out
Second-generation owners who don't want the business
Burned-out operators tired of regulatory hell
Anyone with 1-2 facilities realizing they can't compete
The Pricing
Buyers have power. When there are 100+ sellers with 1-2 facilities each, you're competing to get out.
Recent transactions:
Well-run facility in good location: $140K-160
